Venezuela and Napoleon

I hope that Maduro takes Napoleon’s advice concerning Louis XVI. That is, Louis should not have recognized the French court’s jurisdiction to try him, he should not have participated in the proceedings.

Noriega, unfortunately, didn’t answer to History. Chavez certainly did. I don’t think Maduro does—not a great thinker, does little more than try to follow or imitate Chavea’ policies.

The last time a similar situation came up—Saddam. I don’t think you can include Duterte because the Phils delivered him to the ICJ. There was no foreign invasion; Duterte was not in office.Saddam was left to the courts of Iraq—the CPA wasn’t in charge anymore at the time of his trial. So there may be a realpolitik analysis that says the US was still pulling the strings but formally we were not. Like Noriega, Maduro faces an open indictment but in New York. The outcome is predetermined. The US cannot risk returning Maduro to Venezuela to a trial before a new government because of the chance he’ll be released and returned to power. You may recall we tried and failed to throw out Chavez.

Offering Maduro exile in a friendly country—Mexico?—would be the smartest thing, on the understanding that he could not return to Venezuela. But I don’t think we’re that smart. Every single Latin American country is now against us. They may not overtly say so, but they don’t have to.

Have you been following the drama at the Bank for International Settlements? (The Central Banks' central bank.)Fear of chaos if there is rapid de-dollarization. Saudi Arabia joined BRICS—so much for the petrodollar. One of their bankers was asked, “what could cause the collapse?” His response: anything. A political event.

The weaponization of the dollar started this. We froze Russia’s assets, ha ha, how smart of us. But now other countries are quietly exiting the dollar lest they be next. Quietly, so as not to cause a panic.

Or I could be cynical and say, “yay us” because as of today we now control the largest proven oil reserves on the planet. That should give the dollar life yet.

There’s a history—a secret one—that says the real reason for Iraq was Saddam’s announcement that he’d take Euro for oil. We desperately needed to monetize the trillions in paper we’ve been printing. As of today, we’ve done so. That won’t help Maduro, but that is what all this is about.

Of course, maybe the panic evidenced by the central bankers is not real.

Maybe.