I have been thinking a lot about “what if”’ scenarios. I also have been thinking about how precarious things are at the moment. The last time I felt this way was August, 2001. I had just started a new job in Riyadh. All my financial problems were over. I knew something was going to happen. I didn’t know what. I thought that maybe Saudi Arabia might reset or even break off diplomatic relations. Something was in the air, but no one expected 9/11.
There will be no peace in Gaza. Netanyahu is not a peacemaker. His father was a historian who hadn’t gotten over the treatment of Sephardis in Spain in 1492. Netanyahu lost a brother to the PLO in Uganda. October 7, comparatively was yesterday. There will be peace only after an unconditional surrender and he does not understand why the global community pressures him but doesn’t pressure Putin, who started a war.
There will be no peace in Ukraine, either. Zelensky sees the support of Europe and believes there is no reason to give in. Putin will wait. There will be minor shifts on the battlefield, but he gains nothing by making peace. He has already recognized that his initial objectives were not made. Territorial concessions were only half of what the war was about. If Trump pressures Ukraine, so much the better. Putin is in no rush.
There has been a lot talk about America’s vigorous president, who has his 80th birthday this year. Biology cannot be ignored. Trump has never had a healthy diet. Assuming he has the best physicians American has to offer, there is a long history of good doctors being afraid to treat their leader patients.
His doctors will be overly cautious, afraid that aggressive treatments will fail leaving the patient in a worse state than before. If Trump’s physical condition is as bad as some suspect, the country my find itself with a caretaker president.
Trump is incapacitated and Vance takes over. Or Vance hangs back because Trump’s inner circle keep him at arm’s length. It happened with Biden. China and Russia will feel out the new leader. Israel will hit Gaza harder than ever before.
Vance then serves out the rest of Trump’s term and wins a new term easily. But there’s a missing piece. I don’t know exactly what it is or what it will mean. All I know is that there is a missing piece.