(Guest post by Dr. D. Ball)
There is an old saying: He who enters the conclave “papabile” comes out “cardinale.”
Predictions mean almost nothing. When Ratzinger was elected, it is rumored that the one he almost lost to was Bergoglio, but there is really no proof as the ballots are burned after each ballot. In any event, Bergoglio’s name was never mentioned as being a serious candidate.
When Bergoglio assumed the throne, he announced that his would be a short pontificate. This is what the College of Cardinals (“CC”) wanted: Ratzinger was more or less a continuation of JP2, and together, their reign went extended from 1978 to 2013. Ratzinger had rewritten the Catechism at JP2’s order, seen the end of the Cold War and basically put what they thought were the final touches on Vatican 2. The CC did not want to risk repeating such a long traditional-ish pontificate, so out comes the shy, outlying 76 year old candidate with half a lung missing .
But, alas, the Holy Spirit has other plans, or as the Yiddish saying goes, man dacht und Gott lacht.
Like Catholics everywhere, I mourn Francis’ final illness, immense discomfort and passing, although the blessing of dying during the octave of Easter is indeed a blessing. However, the past 12 years have witnessed an erosion of the foundations of the Catholic Church which you have often heard me call a transformation into just another Protestant social action committee. The Church in which you first served as an altar boy no longer exists…by Papal fiat!
As an honorary Argentinian, and as someone who knows people who knows people, I am privy to certain knowledge that might be considered privileged. Francis was almost certainly a Mason. So is Tagle. This has been rumored for years. Tagle also was involved in some sort of financial mismanagement as the head of Caritas. Though the Filipinos are indeed very devout Catholics as a rule, many have also fallen prey to the clutches of Freemasonry, and yet other, many others, have been baptized by priests who were married or in adulterous relationships and who acted in every way in rural areas of the Philippines like proper diocesan priests…except they were actually ordained by Aglipayan bishops.
Tagle, if elected, would be a continuation, perhaps even a more liberal one, than Francis, if that can be imagined, and the globalist agenda will overtake the theological one.
The CC I think will want to try to find a middle ground: someone who is not a theological dinosaur, not on the edge of death, progressive and open as far as social issues and gay inclusion are concerned, and willing to use his considerable moral power to take a stance against the spread of right-wing dictatorships or tyrannies across the formerly immune West.
The ideal candidate will be one who will be diplomatically astute, somewhat intellectual, who is willing to abrogate Francis’ antagonism towards the Tridentine Mass, bring back some of the old traditional pageantry of the Church, strengthen catechesis of young Catholics (which, I can tell you, is in a pathetic state), and be multilingual.
He must be able to speak, read and write Italian because that is the administrative language of the Church, and that immediately excludes charismatic, media-friendly American candidates like Cardinal Dolan of NY. Cardinal Burke would qualify, as he is fluent in Italian and Latin, but he wants to undo Vatican 2, bring back the Tridentine Mass, turn the priest back around, and revolutionize by turning the clock back, which will not happen. I do not believe the CC will elect a reactionary like Cardinal Sarah (he’s 79 anyway) or one of the homophobic Africans … the CC won’t retreat on that issue.
Most religions have come to realize that the gay community is a good ally to have. They know that if the gays are once again excluded, the Church will begin to disintegrate or even go into schism.
I’ll venture a few educated guesses:
1) It’s time for an Italian again. How long has it been? 47 years since we had a real Italian? Zuppi of Bologna would be my first choice over the one that everyone is speaking about, Secretary of State Pietro Parolin, who is from the Veneto region. Either one would be good, and they are the right age. Grech, from Malta, was very close to the last two popes and is an old insider, and who is more Catholic than a Maltese? He would be fine too. Erdo of Hungary is a bit too stalwart, like Orban. Schönborn of Vienna is 80, but an intellectual; however, his downfall is that he is from a true noble family. No go. The camerlengo Kevin Farrell, formerly Archbishop of Dallas , born in Dublin and naturalized American, would be fine, but generally the camerlengo is never elected, and his spoken Italian is quite “American freshman doing the Eurail tour.” Scola of Milan (83) and Bagnasco of Genoa (82) are both too old. Their time has passed.
2) Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, is a distinct possibility. He is savvy, progressive, speaks Hebrew and Arabic, but at 60, we are looking at a long pontificate. He was quite close to Francis, which may be a positive for some, but not for all. Despite all the tears and the fact that 108 of the 135 electors were given the red birretta by Francis, a lot of powerful people did not like what happened to the Church under his watch.
3) Turkson from Ghana was spoken about in the last two conclaves. Accessible, smart, politically gifted…but let’s be honest: Is the CC really ready to put a black man on the throne of St. Peter? He’s 76 so he might be a compromise candidate if the conclave lasts beyond 5 ballots.
4) Aveline from France is too liberal, just another Francis.
Now for pontifical names. I pray the tradition of taking the last pope’s name as a tribute is going to end. While making a wishlist, I also hope they return to the rule of waiting 50 years before beginning the process of canonizing someone, and that having been a Pope does not automatically grant one an inside track towards sainthood.
Trust me – for all the good moments, Bergoglio was no saint. He did many things in his life which I am sure he has come to regret – as we all have – but in his case, some of his actions resulted in fatal consequences. What he did to my former correspondent the Cardinal Archbishop of Wroclaw was a travesty and a case of the pot calling the kettle black (I can go into further depth at another time).
I am hoping for a bit more expansive thinking: Pope Paschal III (denoting the Pope’s role as alter ego for Jesus’ sacrifice) would put to rest the controversy of Paschal the antipope of the Middle Ages, but nobody will go for that.
My reasonable choices, in order of preference, would be Clement XV (“forgiving” is a wonderful connotation, as well as the name being a backhanded slap at the Jesuits because Clement XIV was the Pope who suppressed the Order), Gregory XVII (“shepherd” is a good image for a Pope), or Pius XIII (the only problem being the number).
Leo XIV would be fine because after all Jesus, descendant of King David, is the conquering lion of the tribe of Judah, but Leo XIII is not very well regarded by current thinkers so that name will probably fall by the wayside. BTW, just a parenthetical: Pope Leo XIII was elected at age 68 and in extremely frail health after the amazingly long pontificate of Pius IX, the thought being that the CC needed more time to think of who to put on the throne of St. Peter. Well, Leo wound up lasting 25 years. Nobody will take the name Peter, despite what some media and prognosticators have claimed.